USDCHF - UPDATE 1

 

Original trade post: USDCHF potential breakout

The original trade was a pending order that was triggered a few hours ago.  Since then, price has consolidated between the trend lines shown on the chart attached.  If the upper trend line FAILS, I am exiting the trade.  I am not waiting for the stop to get hit, I am waiting for a break above the trend line and a candle close to the upside - otherwise I am still looking to ride it down.

GBPUSD - UPDATE and AUDUSD 4HR trendbreak

 

I have entered the blog into a hedged short on the GBPUSD - the 4hr chart above, shows a potential longer term push of the bears coming.

Hedge Entry: 1.5990
Hedge stop: 1.6080
Hedge target: 1.5820

In addition to the GBPUSD hedge, the AUDUSD 4HR chart shows a break of the trendline to the downside.  This break coincided with a close below the 100% retracement of the YELLOW trend origin, and I expect a downward push in the form of a breakout retracement, or consolidation pattern to the downside.  Both of which have given me confidence to pull the trigger on the short. SL at 100 pips profit at 160 pips..

Entry: 1.0243
SL: -100 pips
Target: +160 pips

As always, trade at your own risk.  My blog is for educational purposes, demonstrating my own strategy through the use of traditional methods combined with my personal indicators.  My trades should in no way be taken as absolute fact, while I have achieved relative success trading - I am still susceptible to periods of draw down.  In order to live to trade another day and survive through periods of draw down, it is important to manage risk appropriately.

GBPUSD - I have entered the blog into a new trade

GBPUSD H1 chart - break of trend line and strong resistance at the 100.00 level BLUE origin

USDJPY - Intraday Forecast

Remove the sell limit order.  We will enter on a move that is more defined - which should happen soon! I still expect a retracement, before continuing a larger uptrend.  We will wait for the right opportunity.

The trading opportunity in question is described here:

http://fantomforex.blogspot.com/2011/03/usdjpy-intraday-forecast.html

EURCHF - Long Opportunity

EURCHF 4H Chart - Potential Long Opportunity

The EURCHF chart attached shows a potential completed Elliot wave cycle: 1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C.  The sudden reversal at the 0.00% BLUE retracement line and the subsequent support at the 76.8% gives strong indication that another upward impulse is in the works.  I have placed a BUY order below the market, in anticipation of a slight retrace. SL is about 100 pips, with open ended targets.

PENDING ORDER:
Buy Limit: 1.2890
Stop loss: 1.2790

Trade according to your own risk.

EURAUD - Long Term Trade Setup

EURAUD - Daily Chart

I have identified a possible full Elliot wave completion - a 5 wave impulse down move, followed by a 3 wave retracement.  1-2-3-4-5-A-B-C.  The ABC pattern has formed a rigid channel, which has been broken to the downside.  The trend line break, confirmed by resistance met at the 23.6% RED trend origin and the 61.8% GREEN trend origin, as well as the possibility of a new downward impulse wave, suggests a very viable long term trade on the EURAUD.  Since this is the daily chart, stop loss will be large, so small lot size is required.

I have entered this trade at market order.

Entry: 1.36737
Stop loss: 1.40000 (-327 pips)
Target 1: 1.33474 (+327 pips)
Target 2: 1.28000 (+874 pips)

My initial target is a 1:1 ratio, and my second target is a 2.67 ratio.  The stop loss for this trade is huge for most traders, but this is more of a long term trade that could be open for more than a month.  Please enter trades that have large stops with the appropriate lot size, to avoid huge losses.

NZDUSD - Market Order (Large Stop - longer term trade)

I have placed a short at market, 0.7500 with a stop loss at 0.7680 and open ended targets.  Trade is based on a trend line break on the 4HR chart, coinciding with the cross of the 61.8% retracement line of the BLUE trend origin - key retracement zone.

Enter at your own risk, the stop is 180 pips, so please reduce the lots size with this one!

UPDATE 1:

NZDUSD UPDATE 1 - 4HR chart profit target placement

I have placed the profit target at roughly a 1:1 ratio, at the 61.8% retracement line of the preceding down move - 0.73255.

GBPUSD - Trade Potential

GBPUSD H1 - Trade Opportunity

GBPUSD is making new lows, breaking below the 100% retracement of the BLUE trend origin and the 61.8% retracement of the GREEN origin.

Enter at 1.5950
Stop loss at 1.5980
Final target at 1.5890

Partial profits can be taken along the way, don't forget to move the stoploss as the trade progresses into profit.

UPDATE: This was the very first trade to close since starting the blog, and unfortunately it was for a 32 pip loss.  Trade closed at SL:

GBPUSD - Trade Closed for 32 pip loss

USDCHF - Potential Breakout Coming

USDCHF M15 - Potential Breakout Trade

The USDCHF has recently broken below the 150% retracement trend of the BLUE trend origin, and is currently holding resistance at the 23.6% retracement of the RED trend origin.  If the pair continues downward through a break of the 138.2% BLUE, the pair could continue moving downwards with partial profit targets along the RED trend retracements, with the ultimate target profit at the 50% RED trend retracement.  I have placed a pending sell stop order in the event that price action follows suit.  Enter this trade at your own risk, the final decision is always up to you.

PENDING ORDER:
Sell Stop: 0.9165
Stop loss: 0.9200
Final target: 0.9106

UPDATE 2: EURUSD - Intraday Forecast

Click to view the original EURUSD Intraday Forecast

Click to view UPDATE 1 of EURUSD Intraday Forecast

EURUSD M30 - March 28 Intraday Forecast UPDATE 2

The down move associated with wave iii of the alternate count (update 1), is taking the form of a five wave impulse move down.  The count for this move is of the (1),(2) count.  Critical resistance to confirm completion of the fifth wave is at the 50% retracement of wave (3).  This is marked on the chart as 1.41072.  Wave (4) should end somewhere in this area, giving way to a down move - wave (5).  A firm break above 1.41072 would suggest further moves in the up direction.  Stops can be brought down to this level, or remain where they are.  Keep an eye on this level, as price action around it will determine an early (losing) exit from the trade we're in.

If you are just reading this post, and did NOT enter at the original entry, a lower risk short setup is emerging.  If 1.41072 proves to hold resistance, shorting around this level can yield a very nice risk:reward ratio - with the stop loss just beyond the 50% retracement line, with initial targets down to the 0.00% line, and possibly potential for further declines.  Enter at your own discretion on this one, and adjust stops as your trade becomes profitable.

UPDATE: EURUSD - Intraday Forecast

Click for Original Post

My previous post had entered the blog's account into a short EURUSD trade.  See link above for initial trade details.

EURUSD M30 - Updated wave count and Fantom Trend-retracement analysis

 I had previously labeled this move as two A-B-C waves, but I am proposing two alternate wave counts.  The first is the possible formation of a five-wave impulse move down. However, the 61.8% trend line retracement will give bears a battle.  In the case that the 61.8% keeps price action to the upside, I will remain bearish until price crosses back over the 50% expansion of wave A, which is already the stop loss on the order.  My recommendation however, is to exit the trade sooner as a potential alternate count is in the works - though if your risk tolerance and trading plan can allow for the trade to remain open, you may do so at your own risk.  I am remaining in, but my maximum risk on the trade as determined by my personal tolerance is only a 1% loss.  I can afford to remain in the trade and see where it takes me, but if you assumed much more risk, exit at your discretion.

USDJPY - Intraday Forecast

USDJPY 1HR chart - Dates on chart are March 9, 2011 - March 28, 2011.

ANALYSIS:

The USDJPY appears to be over extending itself... in my humble opinion, it is due for a retracement.  It is nearing both the 100% expansion of the March 16 spike.  This resistance line also coincides with the 261.8% expansion of last Friday's major move.  If the pair continues inflating towards resistance in this manner during today's session, a strong retracement could ensue.

NOTE: The pair is also fast approaching the psychological resistance level of 82.00 - more reason for bullish pressure at this level.  Our entry is just below the 82.00 line, stop should be 30-35 pips with profit target 50-65 pips away.  Enter at your own risk, and choose your targets suiting your own risk tolerance.

EDIT: Move SL to open price after only 20-25 pips.  Minimize risk as soon as possible, if and when price moves us into this trade.

Agree or Disagree?

TRADING OPTION:

PENDING ORDER
Sell Limit: 81.95
Stop loss: 82.30
Take profit: 81.35

EDIT: Stop loss to break even at 81.73.  Partial profits can be taken somewhere once or twice between 30 pips - 60 pips in profit.

EURJPY - 4HR Setup

EURJPY 4HR chart. Dates included on the chart are March 7, 2011 - March 28,2011

ANALYSIS:

The pair closed below the 38.2% retracement trend line of the larger uptrend.  Additionally, the week closed below the trendline drawn in pink, which had contained price action since the lows reached in mid March.  I am placing a sell limit order, above market price (as shown on the graph) at 114.65.  Stop loss at 115.50. Target at 113.60.  Trade according to your own risk appetite, and of always do your due diligence - do you agree with me before you take the trade?  Never make a trade that someone else has suggested unless you agree with it yourself.  If you agree with my trades, vote! Similarly, if you disagree, vote! Any and all feedback welcome!

TRADE OPTION:

Sell Limit:  114.650   (PENDING ORDER)
Stop: 115.50
Target: 113.60

Trade at your own risk, my analysis is for educational purposes, for your benefit, that you can use to make your OWN trading decision.